By Meteorologist John Cifelli
Just when you thought it was safe to winterize the blower and switch the snow shovels for the garden hoe, here comes one more winter blast to impact the mid-Atlantic. I say mid-Atlantic with a purpose, as a Sunday night winter storm will be focused more on the Mason Dixon Line than the Long Island Expressway.
The sun finally came out Friday and today in the afternoon and it feels great. Temperatures crept past 50 in some locations yesterday, and we will do even better today. The warmest spots will top 60. In fact, some South Jersey locations east of the pine barrens are already there.
Moderate surface high pressure noses down from the Great Lakes tonight, while upper level energy emerges from the Rockies, aiding the development of a wave of low pressure across the Mississippi Valley. Copious gulf moisture is dragged by the surface low along the baroclinic zone, a region defined by a strong temperature gradient that storms love to follow as their path.
As usual, that storm track will decide the weather we experience. Similar to our last winter weather event, high pressure to the north will cause a sharp cutoff in snowfall to the north, and upper level features will force the entire system southward. This one looks like an AC Expressway special, with the best snowfall totals being in Cape May, Cumberland, Salem and Atlantic counties. Here, 2 to 4 inches appears possible at this point, with a coating to a couple inches north to 195 or so. For the rest of the state, perhaps some light snow or snow showers, which could make things slick for a bit along Route 1 toward New York City Monday morning.
It’s all out of here by noon Monday, but it remains brisk and chilly during the day. Another storm passes to our south early Wednesday, but for now, it looks like it will not have any impact in New Jersey.
There is yet some wiggle room with this one, but I am confident that this will be focused on Philly and points south and east. A mid-March snowstorm, and Sussex, Delaware looks to see more snow than Sussex, NJ. Incredible!