By Meteorologist John Cifelli
Our nor’easter currently sits just southeast of Montauk, Long Island, spinning bands of showers back toward New Jersey from off the Atlantic and through New York state. The radar signature is worth a look right now. As the brunt of the system that impacted us this morning surges through Maine and New Hampshire, the upper level features are encouraging rain showers down in northern Virginia.
It’s pretty impressive, but as our system has stalled a good distance east of expected, the best forcing will not be over New Jersey tonight and tomorrow, significantly reducing the likelihood of snowfall, as well as the anticipated impact of the duration of the storm. All for the better, as coastal New Jersey took it on the chin this morning, two to three inches of rain fell, coupled with strong winds and high tides left many locations under water. Beach erosion was an impact as well, the picture here is of Seaside Park at 10 a.m. today.
Tonight, temperatures gradually creep lower as our storm system occludes. Again the best forcing has shifted north and east of New Jersey, and temperatures aloft are poor for snow growth in the cloud layer. This means little chance for significant snowfall for the next 12 to 18 hours or so. We’re above freezing pretty much statewide at the surface through tonight, but we don’t warm up much tomorrow, except for locations south of Philly who aren’t feeling much more impact from this system. I expect some snow showers and rain showers for the northern half of the state Wednesday. Come tomorrow afternoon, we could be cold enough to see some accumulations in northern New Jersey. As the upper level low deepens and passes by New Jersey, it can present the possibility for some occasional bands of moderate snow. This is where accumulations would come from. These bands can put down an inch or two in one town, but pass by the town next door. That threat continues through tomorrow evening before tapering to flurries or sprinkles on Thursday. Hopefully we are seeing sunshine by Friday, and the weekend looks clear.
So, the worst of it all is past us in New Jersey, but as the upper level low at 500 mb catches up to the stalled surface low, it could touch off some squall-like snow bands tomorrow afternoon and evening. Otherwise, cloudy with occasional snow or rain showers tonight through Thursday.