By Meteorologist John Cifelli
The “French Toast Storm” to end the winter is now a more typical bacon and eggs for much of New Jersey, as the most dynamic features look to be shunted southward by a more dominant piece of energy from the Polar Vortex. The timing is so critical with these subtle features aloft, where relatively minor shifts in time or distance can have wildly profound shifts in our real weather at the surface.
Friday when I went on air, the snowfall forecast map looked like this:
I still believe the overall thinking here to be correct, with a tight gradient on the northern end of snowfall accumulations, with more widespread, significant totals to the south. The only adjustment I would make at this time is to shift the totals southward, and augment the totals furthest south. Whereas I was concerned about front end warmth in Cape May, Atlantic and Cumberland counties this time yesterday, the southward shift of the baroclinicity means a more southerly track, which will allow precipitation to be snow sooner in South Jersey, as well as accumulate faster.
Today, flurries begin mid-afternoon, with steadier precipitation beginning near sunset. Overnight things develop steadily from north to south, and while southern New Jersey might be the last to see snow move in, it will linger here well into the afternoon on Monday. Further north, expect things to be winding down mid-morning.
This one looks like a winner for the mid-Atlantic, less so for New York City and New England. I still am optimistic that we will make a run for the snowiest winter of all time in New Jersey. It really won’t take much at this point!