By Meteorologist John Cifelli
Our system has reached New Jersey with snow, moderate at times, widespread across the southern half of the state. The surface low that brought light snow to Pennsylvania today is weakening as the best lift shifts toward a strengthening surface low off the New Jersey coast. As a result, the snow shield across Pennsylvania is weakening, literally evaporating as it interacts with the drier air over northern New Jersey.
Interstate 195 looks to be the demarcation line right now between accumulating and non-accumulating snowfall. For the next five or six hours, snow will gradually creep a bit further north, but the best snows are going to be confined to the southern half of the state. I still think New York City and the Route 1 corridor gets brushed with a light accumulation, but further north might be relegated to just snow showers or flurries. So for your evening commute in northern New Jersey, flakes may fly but the ride home will be relatively benign compared to conditions further south where roads are already whitening.
There is still a clear signal for a coastal threat on Saturday. Right now things look like a snow to rain back to snow event as the surface low will likely be close enough to the coast and strong enough to bring a warming influence of ocean air on easterly winds. Timing is still in question, but it might be early enough to make a mess of the whole day. I will have the first accumulation map forecasted for this event tomorrow, but it looks like the biggest snow maker of the year thus far, even if it is tainted by rainfall for a period.