Last night was the coldest night of the year, with subzero readings across the northern tier of New Jersey. Lows tonight in the mid teens will feel tropical in comparison! The threat of rain or snow has largely passed for tomorrow, which should shape up to be a very nice day for much of the state. A weak wave of low pressure will pass to our north, bringing cloud cover and perhaps some snow showers or brief light snow to far northern New Jersey in the morning. Otherwise expect fair skies and a run above 40 degrees for much of the state. It will be great weather to remove the snow and ice if your driveway and sidewalk have been encased since the last winter event.
Aloft, the pattern is fairly progressive, meaning that upper level features are moving across the country at a regular speed, mostly east to west. When upper level disturbances move more north/south, you tend to get bigger storms with a higher impact. For the next five days or so, we will remain in this type of pattern. An upper level trough will move into the Great Lakes and northeast. It will slowly amplify and deepen, while a couple upper level features rotate through the trough, bringing the clouds to northern New Jersey on Saturday, and perhaps more significant weather to New Jersey Sunday night.
Sunday into Sunday evening an Alberta Clipper embedded within the amplifying upper level trough dives south from Canada, presses through the Ohio Valley, and then passes over the mid-Atlantic. A wintry mix is on the table for New Jersey for Sunday night and early Monday, before the storm exits the area later in the day. At the moment, some accumulating snow is possible for far northern New Jersey, while the rest of the north, south of Route 80, and central areas can expect snow, sleet and/or freezing rain. Further south, plain rain will be the dominant precipitation type.
Doesn’t this all sound too familiar? It’s not much unlike the system that affected New Jersey on Monday. At this point I am expecting a somewhat similar outcome. This time, however, there is a stronger area of high pressure expected to be to our north, and the surface low is weaker. This spells a colder scenario that last Sunday-Monday at the surface. Icing may be more widespread as a result on the southern side of the snow/mix line. Exact details will become clear over the next 24 hours, but the northern half of the state and the New York City metro looks to be impacted once again with a significant weather event.
Depending on the track and intensification of the low passing to our north tomorrow, cold air at the surface may press far enough south to make for a wintry impact on central New Jersey as well. Details will follow with tomorrow’s update.