NJTV News Weather: Spring Snowfall Update

20160320_SnowMap_squareBy John Cifelli
NJTV News Meteorologist

When discussing this storm on Friday, I mentioned that the weekend’s weather would come in two waves. If you were north of 195 yesterday and didn’t peek at the radar, you wouldn’t have known that it was a damp and cold rainy day for the southern half of the state. The first wave passed off the coast overnight, and we actually have breaks of sun this morning in parts of the state. On a light northerly wind, the air mass in place across the state is colder and drier. Dew points are in the teens and 20s, so when moisture moves back in later today, snow will be the predominant precipitation type.

Our next wave of low pressure is developing east of Virginia, and will slowly strengthen as it slides northeast off the coast. Precipitation will blossom and spread across the state beginning in southern New Jersey this afternoon, and spread north by the evening. It will begin as rain showers in far south and coastal New Jersey, but as the low pressure center strengthens and the northerly wind circulating over New Jersey increases, we will see a transition to snow everywhere overnight. Snow will struggle to accumulate at first, until steadier snowfall rates arrive with the onset of darkness. Most of the accumulating snow will come at night.

Accumulations will be greatest on grassy and unpaved surfaces. Road conditions shouldn’t deteriorate until after dark, but there could be delays Monday morning. The heaviest snow will be east, and far enough north where things begin as snow. Monmouth County, Staten Island and parts of New York City could approach six inches in places. After this storm, the pendulum of spring swings back in the other direction, with temperatures rebounding into the 50s and 60s all week after Monday.