- Snow expected Monday night into Tuesday
- Plowable snow likely for the coast, northeast part of the state
- Highest commute impact: Tuesday morning
It’s another day of March 2018, and that means we need to talk about the possibility of snow in New Jersey. A powerful coastal storm will spin up and deepen well off the coast of the lower mid-Atlantic Monday, and swing just wide of our coastline to brush the state with a light snowfall tonight. I’ve been watching the projected development of this storm for several days, as New Jersey will be just on the western periphery of its area of impact. As for near misses, this one is about as close as it gets. The exact track of the surface low is so sensitive to subtle changes in the flow and energy aloft, that a coastal blizzard to near miss and every possibility in between has been on the table the last several days. We’re looking at heavy snow and blizzard conditions just 30 miles or so off the coast.
As the afternoon progresses Monday, clouds will thicken as the storm approaches. Temperatures will remain in the low 40s, and drop into the upper 30s toward evening, and it will remain breezy, as well. Some rain showers are possible late afternoon and early evening, which will change over to light snow after dark. During the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday, the storm is east of Cape May and south of Cape Cod, about its closest point to New Jersey. This is when snow will be steadiest, leading up to the morning commute. If a fringe band on the western edge of the system sets up shop along the Parkway corridor, then coastal residents and those in northeastern New Jersey may see a bit more, up to 3 or 4 inches. Otherwise, this is a minor event. It’s only worth writing about because of the timing — leading up to and during the early part of the morning commute — and because of how near of a miss this was from a third major storm in 12 days for the state.
Besides a few snow showers on Wednesday for northern New Jersey, the rest of the week looks quiet and cold. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit below average through Friday, which means nighttime low temperatures into the 20s. The possibility of another snow threat lurks early next week. For the second straight year, we seem to have traded March weather for that of February, and vice versa. It looks like we still have a little ways to go before spring gets sprung for good.